Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Congress, BSP loose vote share, BJP looses election, very interesting cause and effect

AAP has won frightening majority. It is their moment of glory and rightfully so. The celebrations on their part is in order.

However, as a student of statistics (and I hated the subject for many years in the early career of mine) I decided to do some math.

A simple analysis of a very simple data made me give the unusual title to my blog. Let me show you that data. See the table below (rounded off to nearest 0.5 value) :-

Party      vote share    vote share  Change
                 2013              2015
BJP             33%              32%              - 1%
Cong          25%              10%              - 15%
BSP            5.5%             1.5%             - 4%
Total loss                                              20%
AAP           29%               54%             +24.5%

Not counting the vote share loss of independents and smaller parties which could amount to the difference between Cong + BSP loss (and also 1% loss of BJP) and AAPs gain, the data is clear, AAP has gained on the cost of loss of Voter confidence on these two parties.

My Inferences are as under:-

- AAP has gained votes not on the cost of BJP but it is own the cost of Cong and BSP.

- BJP's loyal Voter has stayed with it.

- AAP's landslide victory is real but may not be due  to unpopularity of BJP. It is primarily due to irrelevance of Cong and BSP (63 of Cong candidates have lost their deposits, imagine the residual relevance of a national party).

- Despite having their vote share intact even BJP looks irrelevant as 32% vote share has translated in to just 3 out of 70 seats.

- BJP needs to follow basic principle of marketing, retain old loyal voters but garner newer voters rapidly, unless it can device division of votes among other parties.

- Sheer size of AAPs Legislature party indicates chances of management challenges.

Many other possibilities may be there but as of now these inferences look adequate.

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