Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Curious Case of Govt Formation in Delhi

The state of Delhi is without an elected government since Feb 14. Kejariwal forming govt with support of Congress, the very party he accused of all through his campaign and then resigning on very flimsy grounds (as such his govt would have fallen out of sheer weight of the contradictions is another story) was already very confusing to people of Delhi.

If he was to resign so fast then why did he form a govt? A big unanswered question. May be a sudden success in Delhi, which gave him unexpected results, made him very ambitious to try his luck for Loksabha elections or may be he realised that governance is beyond him (to agitate at the drop of the hat and to govern are very different things).

That is not the subject of this blog post. Subject is curious case of govt formation in Delhi. One good thing out of Political Samudra Manthan (churning) that is happening in India is, days of Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram (Political Turncoats) are over. As in Samudra Manthan, when good comes out, Bad also comes out of any churning. The bad part also is, the days of Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram are over. This is funny?

Let me explain. When Turncoats shamelessly changed parties, at least there was a possibility that in situation like Delhi, a government would have been formed. In fact smart people found a way around anti defection law when it was brought in. How many turncoats BJP needed, just four (with 32 of their own MLAs)? With the turncoats, BJP would have formed the govt and because their number would have been only 4, it was possible to keep them under check.. However, as mentioned earlier, the political churning has resulted in elected representatives being very fearful of quitting a party from which they have been elected least moralistic new voter junks them in the next election.

Also in the new wave of political correctness, even BJP is wary of forming a government with the help of Turncoats. And what is their worry? Same as the worry of elected representative about leaving one party and joining other. If BJP forms a govt by maneuvering, they are sure to been seen a immoral party and the defeat in the next election is feared.

It was evident from the day of election result that none can form a govt. Despite that AAP tried their hand and burnt it. Why is the assembly not being devolved and fresh elections ordered. BJP was just waiting to consolidate and they have done so by way of big wins in Maharashtra and Haryana. They were marginally short of full majority in the last elections in Delhi, this time with the victory in these two states, they are certain of full majority,

The suspense is likely to be over soon and Delhi will have re-election. That would happen for the reasons mentioned above and not because of antics of the Shoot and Scoot man of Delhi or even SC observations.

The correctness or otherwise of this statement is not far to verify.It is just matter of two odd months and I would peg the probability of the statement above being true to 85 %. The signs are here to see.

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